Blue Rising

I gotta tell ya, I was nervous Tuesday night when the returns came in.  It was obvious soon enough that the Democrats were going to take back the House, but I got nervous when Florida Democrats fell short in their bids to win the governorship and hold Bill Nelson's Senate seat.  And I was on the verge of melting down when I saw that Scott Walker was winning his bid for a third term as governor of Wisconsin over Democrat Tony Evers while Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly was going down in Indiana and Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill was losing big time in Missouri.  Beto O'Rourke could not unseat Ted Cruz in the Texas Senate election.  And when I learned that the insufferable Marsha Blackburn was elected to the Senate from  Tennessee, I wanted to throw up.

But the Democrats have won more House seats than originally thought, as the votes continue to be counted. And something interesting is happening in the uncalled Senate contests.  Rick Scott's lead over Nelson in Florida is so tenuous that a recount is likely.  Ditto for the gubernatorial election there. Andrew Gillum has conceded, yet a recount could actually put him in the governor's mansion after all.  Well, it would be easy for him to move there from his house, as he is the mayor of Tallahassee.  But voting shenanigans in Broward County have led Governor Scott to try to stop the process - which would certainly benefit his candidacy!  

And despite his self-serving efforts to block a recount, Scott may have a case. Brenda Snipes, the woman in charge of elections there, is notorious for screwing up the vote count.  Even progressives are angry with her.  (She supposedly helped rig the Broward County vote for Debbie Wasserman Schultz's 2016 re-election bid!) 

Be that as it may, Florida's elections haven't been decided yet, and neither has the Arizona Senate race between Krysten Sinema and Martha McSilly - uh, McSally.  If Sinema, the Democrat, wins, and if Nelson should somehow pull through in Florida - and if Democrat Mike Espy somehow pulls off an upset in the runoff for the Mississippi special Senate election -  the Republicans would have a net gain of zero in their majority Senate caucus.  But who cares when Wisconsin voters, by a narrow margin, sent Scottzo the Clown packing!

Among the victories I did not see coming: Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine winning the governorship in that state - at the age of 71 - on the same day Sherrod Brown, who defeated DeWine's bid for a third term in the U.S. Senate back in 2006, won his third term in the U.S. Senate; Kansas electing a female Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, over phony voter-fraud crusader Kris Kobach; Mark Sanford's old South Carolina U.S. House seat going to Democrat Joe Cunningham after Trump Republican Kate Arrington won the nomination over Sanford for the seat and ran like she was the Donald's best friend, and: Democrat Lucy McBath in Georgia defeating Republican incumbent  Karen Handel for the seat in the state's Sixth U.S. House District, the same seat Democrat Jon Ossoff attempted to win in a special election last year.  Meanwhile, a runoff in the gubernatorial election in Georgia between Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams is still possible.

Despite Republican successes here and there, the Grand Old Party faces strong headwinds going into the 2020 presidential and congressional elections. Trump is toxic; the Democratic victories this past Tuesday were a clear expression of displeasure in the way he's "governed" this country.  Democrats, meanwhile, have been warned not to nominate so many progressives - and certainly not one for President - next time around, as so many progressive nominees, especially Ben Jealous, the Democratic nominee for governor of Maryland, lost big time.  I'm of two minds about that, particularly where it pertains to the presidential election in 2020.  I'll have more on that later. 

Oh, yeah, Mikie Sherrill was elected to the House from my district.  So let's celebrate the first Democrat to be elected to the House from New Jersey's Eleventh U.S. House District since 1982.  

Ladies and gentlemen, Rebecca Michelle Sherrill!

Oops!  Hold on, I'm still mixed up . . . 

There we are . . . ;-) 

Package Bombs Away

Twelve package bombs sent to CNN, retired intelligence officers and Democratic politicians - and Robert DeNiro - have been intercepted by federal authorities before they exploded.  All of the intended recipients have been among Donald Trump's biggest detractors, and Trump has bashed them personally of late.  Trump isn't responsible for these bombs, but someone out there has been inspired and emboldened enough to terrorize Democrats and other Trump critics on Trump's behalf.

I thought this would be a game changer for a suddenly emboldened Republican Party hoping to capitalize on the very anger that led some bomber to act.  Maybe it will be.  But there's no indication that Trump himself is going to back down from his hateful rhetoric, and he and his most ardent supporters have even suggested that the bombs were sent by a renegade Democrat to make the GOP in general and Trump in particular look bad.  Some Trump fans have even suggested that there are no bombs - that the whole story is faked.  And Democrats, who have been down in the dumps all month despite polls in their favor mostly holding steady, don't seem - yet - to have found a proper way to respond.

Perhaps it's better that the Democrats don't go overboard in response.  The bomb story is enough to get people to see what's happening.  There are all of these incendiary devices out there, and Trump keeps trying to focus on a phony migrant caravan story by sending active troops to the border with Mexico.  The public should demand more of a focus on this bomb investigation and should say they they've had enough of this insane political hate-mongering.  Also, the Democrats still have the health care issue in their favor, as if that alone weren't enough.  Joe Biden - who, at the moment at least, isn't running for anything - has struck the best tone and delivered the best message.  Don't be afraid of terrorists, he says. Don't be afraid of Trump. Vote.

I'm going to.

Oh, Great, More Trump News

While the Trump legal defense wades through the swamp  that was supposed to have been drained, Trump's star lawyer Rudolph Giuliani - who was one a nice guy but is now a mean old man - said that he was afraid of Trump talking to Russia-investigation special counsel Robert Mueller because the truth could be set against an alternative version of the truth, and then added for good measure, "Truth isn't truth!"

To be fair, what Giuliani meant was that Trump could tell the truth and someone else could tell a contradictory lie that could be believed over the truth.  And I almost - almost - feel sorry for Rudy, as his client is the classic boy who cried "Wolf!" - a pathological liar who will not be believed even when he tells the truth.  I almost feel sorry for Giuliani . . . but I don't, because Trump never tells the truth.

As for the rescinding of former CIA director John Brennan's security clearance . . . I suspect that Brennan only fanned the flames of this brouhaha by insisting that it's "hogwash" that there was no collusion between the 2016 Trump campaign and the Russians.  There's no evidence of collusion yet.  (I'll expand on that in a moment.)  Trump is doing this, of course, to scare security experts who still have that clearance from speaking out against him, but when he started badmouthing a security expert no one had ever heard of or from, it became obvious that, if you're a former intelligence officer or national security adviser, you can still lose your clearance even if you shut up. 

It's telling, though,  that more security experts find Brennan to be a TV-camera-loving blusterer of a cable-news commentator, yet they all defended him.  As for the fact that Brennan has no security clearance anymore, that means he can't look at sensitive information and advise the White House based on that information . . . like Trump was ever going to consult him anyway.  

No, to the point that there's no evidence of collusion with the Russians yet . . . Brennan's comments were apparently based on circumstantial evidence.  As  the movie North By Northwest has demonstrated, circumstantial evidence can frame an innocent party, and the evidence has to be solid and incontrovertible  to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.  I am not saying that Trump is innocent of the charge of Russian collusion and that there is no proof of colluding with the Russians.  I merely note that the evidence proving so isn't available yet.  Which is precisely why the Democrats should not run in the midterm elections on impeachment or even mention it.  If they do, then they give Trump ally Steve Bannon what he wants so he can push Republican turnout in the midterms to offset the expected Democratic surge and keep the GOP in control of the House.  So please, Democrats, keep talking about health care, wages, and infrastructure.  But not impeachment.  I've long since lost interest in the topic.

And I have never been interested in the Paul Manafort trial.  Oh, is that still going on?  Yawn . . .    

Caroline, Yes?

Ready for more dynasty politics?

John F. Kennedy's daughter Caroline Kennedy, having completed a relatively successful three-year stint as U.S. ambassador to Japan, is now being talked about by New York State Democrats for a run for a U.S. House or Senate seat in 2018 (wait - isn't there a female Democratic U.S. Senator from New York up for re-election then?).  Not only that, she's being mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate for President of the United States in 2020.

Okay, so what do I think of this?  Well, I wouldn't be here talking about this story if I didn't have an opinion of it.  As the ambassador to Japan, she was highly skilled in dealing with nuclear disarmament and world trade - two issues that clearly distinguish her from Donald Trump.  As for her experience in other issues, well, it's . . . wanting.  Bear in mind that Caroline Kennedy was talked about for a congressional campaign in New York in 2009, but that went nowhere.  And three years of government experience in appointive office hardly matches Hillary Clinton's four years of government experience in appointive office plus eight years in elective office before that.

The dynasty issue, however, is moot.  Caroline's father's Presidency was over fifty years ago, and should she be elected President in 2020, there would be a 57-year gap between her and her dad's administration - longer than the eight-year gap between the Bushes or the 24-year gap between John Adams and John Quincy Adams (and longer than even the 48-year gap between grandfather William Henry Harrison and grandson Benjamin Harrison).  In other words, since there's only been one Kennedy in the White House - for a thousand days in the early sixties, which was quite long ago - the dynasty issue doesn't really apply here. The family has been out of the White House so long that voters will shrug it off.  I already have.

It's amazing though, how things turn out. Back in the '70s, some people thought that maybe John F. Kennedy, Jr. might one day run for President - say, in the year 2000. We all know what happened; in 2000, John F. Kennedy, Jr. was dead and another presidential son - from a Republican family - got in the White House instead.  No one ever considered JFK Jr.'s big sister as a presidential prospect, but Hillary Clinton has made that possible now.

If Caroline Kennedy is the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, I'll vote for her.  But I have to admit that the reliance of the Democrats on familiar faces and names is redolent of annual summer rock festivals that keep booking sixties and seventies acts because no one can name anyone from the current crop of rock acts.  This is the Democratic Party's way of admitting that they have no interest in cultivating new faces (they keep losing to Republican faces in elections, anyway) and are increasingly falling back on a curious brew of Baby Boomer nostalgia and gender-identity politics to win back power in a nation full of millennials who just want a President who'll work for everyone regardless of "identity."  And truth be told, being a Kennedy - even a female Kennedy - doesn't automatically guarantee electoral success.  Caroline's cousin Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, daughter of Robert Kennedy, was a Democratic lieutenant governor of Maryland who ran for the state's top job in 2002 and lost to Republican Robert Ehrlich; she never ran for office again.  When Ehrlich ran for re-election as governor of Maryland in 2006, he was defeated by an upstart Democrat who was not from a powerful political family.

That would be this guy. ;-)              

Whatsa matter, can't you take a hint? :-D