Monday, June 26, 2023

Russia's January 6

When Wagner Group militia leader Yevgeny Prigozhin (below) became annoyed when his benefactor, Russian President Vladimir Putin, kept shortchanging and ignoring his requests for more materiel to fight the war in Ukraine,  he'd clearly had enough.  He led his mercenaries toward Moscow and exposed Putin's weakness as a leader  But Putin still had an ace card to play - the Russian air force - and their counterattack on the Wagner forces on their way to deposing Putin convinced Prigozhin, a one-time oligarch and restaurateur, to cut his losses.  He presumably made his way to Belarus, whose president, Alexander Lukashenko, granted him asylum in exchange for Putin to promise not to haul Prigozhin's butt before  Russian tribunal and tried for insurrection.
Putin got himself a reprieve, as Prigozhin's plan to storm the Kremlin never got that far, but Prigozhin has made it clear that Bad Vlad's days are numbered.  The war in Ukraine is going so badly for him that even Russian soldiers are turning against him.  Wagner mercenaries had been on his side, because that's their job, but that is clearly no longer true.  An inside coup perpetrated from a top Kremlin official is the likeliest outcome for Putin, and it could happen much sooner than any of us dare think.  Three things are for certain.  The first is that Putin will be gone soon, and the second is that Russia is going to be in even greater turmoil as the country figures out who's in charge.
And the third thing is that Donald Trump will have to find another sympathetic world leader to interfere in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 

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