O-H! I-O!

You have to hand it to U.S. Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio.  The Democratic lawmaker never gives up, even when the odds are against him and pundits and partisans are jeering him.  (Sound familiar?)  He ran against Nancy Pelosi for House Democratic leader in 2016 and became persona non grata with her and her chief deputies.  He ran for President in 2020 and never made it to the first caucus or primary.  Now's he's running for a U.S. Senate seat in Ohio, a state which Democrats haven't carried in a presidential election since 2012 and in which they've have only won two elections for statewide office since 2006 . . . and both were won by Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.

Now Ryan is running to serve in the U.S. Senate alongside Brown and have Ohio's U.S. Senate delegation embody proletarian Democratic centrism just as Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey, as Massachusetts's Senate delegation, embody elitist Democratic progressivism.  Ryan is running as a working man's candidate, advocating more manufacturing at home and incentives to keep jobs here while siding with labor unions on workers' rights.  He's railed against President Biden's student loan debt forgiveness plan for not acknowledging the struggle of lunch-pail workers who didn't go to college, and he's supported Donald Trump's tariffs.  What could possibly stand in Ryan's way?

The answer: J.D. Vance.

Vance, the author of the memoir "Hillbilly Elegy," is Ryan's Republican opponent an advocate of the forgotten working man who was left behind in the digital age. There's just one problem - though a native Ohioan, Vance has made a fortune as a venture capitalist in California's Silicon Valley, and he undoubtedly has lost whatever connection he had to midwestern proletarian culture that Ryan, who never left Ohio, still maintains.  Yet the polls show the race even.

Why?  Three reasons.  First, Vance, a man who once described Trump as a poisonous influence, sought and won his endorsement, which goes a long way with Trump supporters.  Second, Ohio is an increasingly Republican state, and even the least "woke" Democrat who understands the needs of the factory workers lucky enough to have jobs has trouble being taken seriously by voters simply because of his or her party affiliation.  Third, Ryan isn't getting any support from the national Democratic Party - which is focusing its attention on other Senate races - while Vance, after running such a lackluster campaign after winning the Republican Senate nomination,  is getting tons of money from the national  GOP.  Many pundits believe that, because Ryan won the Democratic Senate nomination with little effort and still has plenty of money, he doesn't need national Democratic support.  Others suggest that national Democrats see Ohio as a lost cause. I, however, suspect that national Democrats aren't supporting Ryan because, after trying to unseat Pelosi and distancing himself from Biden on student loan debts, Ryan's name is still mud in Washington.

Ryan still has a chance.  By all accounts, he's running a great campaign.  This election is one of many in the country that no poll can possibly predict.  If Vance wins, though, Ryan's political career is likely over.  He had to give up his House seat to run for the Senate, so there's no going back.  Having shot himself in the foot by challenging Pelosi's House leadership and having run a zombie presidential campaign, he must know that a loss in this Senate campaign would mean three strikes and out. 

One last thing: Some pundits have also suggested that the presence of Sherrod Brown in Senate hurts Ryan because Ohioans would prefer Vance to keep the Ohio U.S. Senate bipartisan after retiring Republican Senator Rob Portman leaves.  The best reason for vote for Ryan is this - Ohio doesn't need two senators who are going to cancel out each others votes.