Is Baghdad Burning?

Shortly after the United States committed air strikes on on the Iran-backed Kataeb Hezbollah militia in Iraq, members of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a mostly Shia Muslim group formed to fight the mostly Sunni Islamic State group, attacked the high-security U.S. Embassy  compound in Baghdad.  They got through the main door of the compound, causing chaos for the American soldiers and Marines defending the embassy.  Trump blamed Iran for egging on the PMF, and he vowed to take punitive action against the Iranians in retaliation.  The U.S. air strikes were themselves in retaliation for the killing of an American contractor at an American base in the Iraqi city of Kirkuk.

Can you say, "threat to world peace," boys and girls?

At least, a threat to the global oil market, and also the Dow.  And now that Iranian Revolutionary Guard leader Qasem Soleimani has been killed on Iraqi soil on Trump's orders - an act of war by any definition - it could threaten everything else.  Yes, General Soleimani was a bad actor on the world stage who was responsible for the deaths of thousands of Americans, but will taking him out lead to even greater trouble - and more terrorist acts?

If there's a foreign-policy crisis that will end Trump's Presidency, this may be it.  Now, I'm not going to wish for a takeover of the Baghdad embassy that would result in an interminable hostage crisis, but I do note that a similar crisis ended Jimmy Carter's Presidency.  Maybe Trump can still slip through this with our so-called booming economy, but it won't be so booming if consumer confidence falls apart in the wake of the Middle East  spiraling out of control.   And as much as I don't want to compare Trump to Carter, there is an interesting symmetry to what's unfolding in Baghdad.  A crisis in the Middle East ended Democratic dominance of the Presidency and led to a Republican political era; another one could do the opposite.

Except that Carter didn't deserve the drubbing he got.  Trump deserves the drubbing he could get and then some.  Note to Trump supporters: This isn't funny anymore.