What the Hell Is Wrong With the Democrats?

The Democrats have an 85 percent chance of winning control of the House, at least according to Nate Silver.  They likely won't win back the Senate, but they stand a good chance at keeping the 49-seat caucus that they have now.  And the stand to win at least eight governorships. 

So why does it look like they're going to blow it again?

Democrats have been losing the momentum in the final weeks of the midterm campaign to the Republicans not just because of Judge K, the controversy over whom has died down somewhat since he joined the Supreme Court, but because Donald Trump is throwing out all sorts of non-issues - an immigrant caravan that's trying to get into the U.S. but can't even get though Mexico, Middle Eastern terrorists in the caravan, mom mobs - and they're resonating. Democrats have the high ground on several issues that are real but they're not throwing out anything.

And now it turns out that the majority of early voters are . . . Republicans!

Democrats had been cautioned not to talk about Trump but instead talk about issues that matter.  Many of them apparently were counting on anti-Trump sentiment to carry them over the finish line.  Except that Trump now has a 47 percent approval rating - not great but higher than the 46 percent of the vote in 2016.  And the economy?  Democrats were counting on low wages to help them. Wages are starting to tick up now.  Republican chances of holding the House, which is still statistically unlikely, may be ticking up as well.  The Democrats have talked about health care but have failed to realize that this is not the only issue voters care about.  Trump hasn't talked about infrastructure lately - but neither have the Democrats. And even though no one in their right minds would be for illegal immigration, Democrats can't bring themselves to come out against it while stressing that they only want to expand legal - legal - immigration because they think that co-opting the Republican talking point against illegal immigration will alienate Hispanic interest groups.  This is ironic, because Democrats haven't been reaching out to actual Hispanic voters.

Democrats may have a chance to preserve their prospects for the House of Representatives thanks to Trump's latest lie.  He says that Congress is ready to pass a middle-class tax cut resolution in the coming week, even though taxes are decreed by law and not by resolution and Congress isn't in session right now anyway.  Democrats have an advantage on the middle-class tax issue.  Now's their chance to call Trump out on an issue that they can win on.  But will they do it?  (One candidate who likely will is New Jersey Democratic House candidate Mikie Sherrill, who, running in my district, has made taxes the centerpiece of her campaign.)

Twenty eighteen is not a presidential election year, but the ghost of Winfield Scott, the last Whig presidential candidate, could unexpectedly hover over the Democrats in two weeks and change.  The Democrats, despite Trump, could still . . . Whig out.