Winter Isn't Over

In northern New Jersey, where I live, we've had a spell of mild weather over the weekend, leading many to believe that spring will arrive sooner than the vernal equinox. That's a plausible conclusion, given that the only major storm on the horizon will be bringing rain rather than snow this coming Tuesday. But I've been looking at the long range forecast into next weekend (as well as beyond), and it has me dreaming of a white St. Patrick's Day. And it's a bad dream.

Differing forecasts for next weekend and next Monday show a slight chance of precipitation with temperatures warm enough to keep it as rain - showers, likely - while another forecast suggests some snow . . . but not much more than two inches. Good news, until you remember that forecasts for a week in the future are never as accurate as the forecasts for the day after tomorrow. And many computer models show the week ending March 23 featuring cold temperatures - cold enough for snow - and the potential for not one, but two significant storms for the American Northeast. And any snow we get from such storms may stick around longer than the snow we just got (a good deal of which has already melted). The groundhogs that saw their shadows on February 2 (Punxsutawney Phil was not one of them) may have predicted seven more weeks of winter rather than six.

And you know what? It may have looked like spring today, but it didn't feel like it. I went outside to collect tree branches from my yard this afternoon, and noticed people out and about but still wearing heavy coats; one woman with her young children was wearing a scarf. I myself felt a nip in the air. The only hints of spring were the crocuses in my yard. Yesterday was better, and I even got to ride my bicycle then. I don't begin riding my bike in earnest until April, though, and some of those long-range forecasts I saw for the rest of the month give me good reason to wait that long.

Ironically, Daylight Savings Time just began. It's begun in the U.S. on the second Sunday of March since 2007, the start moved up from the first Sunday in April ostensibly to save energy but really to convince voters that the Republicans who made the change in Congress had an energy policy. The first year Daylight Savings Time began in March, a huge snowstorm hit New Jersey on March 16. What a breakthrough, I thought at the time - start Daylight Savings Time while it's still winter so I have an extra hour of daylight to shovel my driveway!

Just don't take solace in a forecast that shows little more than a few rain or snow showers a week out. A soft shower or a flurry predicted a week in advance usually turns out to be a nasty storm by the time the week passes. After all, on October 21, 2012, a tropical depression forming of the coast of Nicaragua wasn't seen as a threat to New Jersey. It was expected give us a few showers if it ever formed into a tropical storm and actually got that far north. The next day, that system strengthened into a storm and was named Sandy. A week later, New Jersey and New York were devastated by one of the biggest hurricanes of all time.

I'm getting weary of inclement weather myself. It no longer just rains and snows; now rain falls in downpours, and snowstorms not only have become more fierce, they've come more early. Not only did my mother and I have to endure the October Surprise of 2011, we had to put up with a November snowstorm in 2012. Every storm is suddenly "historic," and well-behaved weather never makes history. Spring and autumn seem like quaint ideas rather than legitimate seasons between two extremes. We're going right from winter to summer and back again.

If there's any bright side to a continuation of winter weather well into March (and I'm stretching it here), it's that the rest of the month isn't likely to produce the sort of winter storm that necessitates a benefit concert. As for the last full week of March - Holy Week - that week is supposed to be seasonal, with warm temperatures in time for Easter on March 31. So, right now, I don't think the Easter Bunny will need a lift from Santa Claus.

But Rudolph is at the ready . . . just in case.