Bush Loses His Bounce

Okay, here's some good news about John Kerry's campaign. And, as the old song goes, this could be the start of something big!

The magazine Investor's Business Daily released a poll yesterday showing that George W. Bush has lost his bounce from the Republican convention in New York. In fact, the poll now shows Kerry and Bush tied with 47 percent each among likely voters. Add Ralph Nader to the mix, and Kerry and Bush are tied with 46 percent, with Nader receiving 3 percent. Focus on all registered voters, not just likely ones, and Kerry leads Bush 45 to 43 percent. Break it down among independents and voters in swing states, and it looks even better for Kerry; Kerry leads among independents, 48 to 38 percent, and he leads among swing-state voters 51 to 39 percent.

Alright, so this is a poll from a small business newsletter, not a poll for Newsweek or Time. What, you want me to show numbers from a Gallup poll in Kerry's favor? Glad you asked. :-) Look at these figures from a Gallup poll taken after the Republican convention; though Bush leads Kerry by seven percentage points (52 percent to 45 percent) his bounce from New York was only two points. Kerry lost the same amount of support simultaneously, meaning the attacks on Kerry during the GOP convention had only limited success. Moreover, 38 percent of those surveyed in the same Gallup poll declared that the convention made it less likely - yes, less likely - to vote for Bush.

Kerry isn't necessarily out of the woods yet. But these figures clearly show that he still has a fighting chance.