The Next Presidential Election

Alright, with the 2004 presidential campaign heating up, how does it look to me? Well, George W. Bush certainly looks vulnerable, but he has the power of the incumbency on his side, not to mention big campaign donations. The Democrats have to put up a strong, solid candidate who will offer a real choice, not a pale imitation of Bush. (Or, as Barry Goldwater once said, a choice, not an echo.) Right now, the likeliest candidates to offer that clear choice are Massachusetts senator John Kerry and former Vermont governor Howard Dean. Kerry has solid national security credentials, and he has a strong liberal voting record in the Senate. Dean is more of a straight talker, and he avidly supports a national health insurance program, but he's actually kind of moderate on a few issues - he supports the rights of gun owners, for example.

The wild card remains retired General Wesley Clark. Clark, a former NATO commander and an advisor to Republican and Democratic presidents alike, came out as a Democrat today on CNN because of his belief that a more robust domestic policy is needed to benefit the poor and the working class and his conclusion that Bush's unilateralist foreign policy is all wrong. He would certainly make a formidable candidate, but he hasn't decided whether or not to run; he's expected to make a decision by September 19. The Democrats might be able to win just as easily with Clark as with Dean or Kerry, and Clark's military background would certainly tip the scales in the Democratic party's favor.

Right now the Democratic party has a fifty percent chance of beating Bush next year. But whether or not they'll be able to take the fight all the way to November 2004 depends on whom they nominate and how the nominee runs the campaign. Can they mount a formidable challenge to Bush? Can they - dare I say it - win? Stay tuned.