Not Another October Storm!

Storms in my neck of the woods in late October are becoming as reliable as the sunrise itself, because, as fate would have it, the greater New York area could very well see another nor'easter toward the end of this month.  This storm is not expected to be anywhere nearly as bad as either the 2011 Halloween nor'easter or 2012's Hurricane Sandy, but with a lot of rain predicted along with wind gusts of up to forty miles an hour or more, it could be bad enough.

And if that sounds like something I said this time last year, it kind of is . . . I said something similar just before a storm hit our area in late October 2017 (although we emerged unscathed from that).

The bright side of this year's potential storm is that it will be a rainstorm, not be a snowstorm like the 2011 "event," so we won't have to worry about snow bringing leafy tree limbs down.  The down side is that not only have most of the leaves not fallen where I live, most of them haven't even changed color - ironically, due in part to the summer rains the trees soaked up.  And any gusty winds we get in this potential storm could make the leaves act like sails and blow lots of trees over - because, despite a much-appreciated dry spell of late, the ground still hasn't dried out enough for the tree roots to re-stabilize.

I've already had two power outages this month - both on the same day! - as a result of rain that wasn't supposed to be all that bad despite its association with Hurricane Michael (which, of course, turned out to be worse than most of us originally thought it would be).  That makes 47 outages since November 2009 by my latest count.  Now we could get an even four dozen outages in total as of this time next week!

I'm beginning to really, really hate late October . . ..   

A Big Storm?

In the United States, tropical moisture from the Southeast and an approaching low-pressure system from the Midwest are conspiring to produce a nasty storm for the Northeast this coming Sunday.  It's being referred to by some as a big nor'easter, but to call it so and leave it at that would be a major understatement, as the storm itself is predicted to be major.  And on the sixth anniversary of the October Surprise snowstorm and the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Sandy!

Well, this storm is not expected to be anywhere nearly as bad as either of those two "events," but with three inches of rain predicted along with wind gusts of up to forty miles an hour or more, it could be bad enough.  Don't be surprised if you don't hear from me any time after Sunday, which would mean Power Outage #42 . . . . and if you do hear from me, that may be because I'm blogging from my library.  I hope to get through this storm as I've gotten through any other, the preferably not with a three-day outage (October Surprise) or a six-day outage (Sandy).  Any outage I get, I hope it's measured in minutes or hours (but preferably minutes) rather than days.   I'll keep my fingers crossed . . . while hoping that storm damage isn't so massive throughout New Jersey that Chris Christie puts Lieutenant Governor Guadagno in charge of disaster coordination that leads to her doing such an impressive job that it changes the course of the gubernatorial election and allows her to defeat Phil Murphy for the governorship in an upset.

Sorry, I'm fatalistic . . ..     

The Gospel According To Matthew

Oh, great - the American Northeast could get a hurricane that makes Sandy look like a nuisance drizzle.

Tropical Storm Matthew formed in the Caribbean Sea today - jumping from invest status to tropical storm status without the usual interval of being a tropical depression - and could - no, will - be a Category 1 hurricane by Friday and could possibly be a Category 2 hurricane by Monday as it approaches Cuba.  After that, where it goes is anyone's guess, but the guessing so far seems to favor a track toward the north and toward the East Coast.  Some weather charts show Matthew possibly affecting the Gulf Coast, but that seems to be the minority opinion.

Last night the Global Forecast System (GFS) computer model had a scenario that turned the storm a hard ninety degrees to the right from its westerly path and brought it charging full tilt boogie to the Tri-State area.  I and a lot of people commenting on the Facebook weather started freaking out.   Then the GFS issued this model this after noon for 1:00 A.M. Eastern time, on October 7:

This is actually an improvement over the previous model.  Note that the storm brings rain to New York and New Jersey but its center stays off shore.  The earlier model had Matthew going inland through Pennsylvania and western New Jersey.  And here's where GFS projects Matthew will be at noon Eastern time, just twelve hours later.  

By 1:00 A.M. Eastern time, or 2:00 P.M. Atlantic time, Saturday, October 8, it's in the Bay of Fundy in the Canadian Maritimes.

But wait!  Here's where the European model shows the storm at 7:00 A.M. Eastern time - off the coast of Florida!  Nowhere near the Bay of Fundy.  Also, in this scenario, Matthew is depicted to be stronger and better defined than the GFS models show it at the same point on the map.  And when does the GFS show Matthew near Florida?  Four days earlier - Tuesday, October 4. and with less strength and (relatively) lighter winds.  Also, the Euro shows it farther east at this point on the map than the GFS does, suggesting it may move out to sea and not even come close to land.

There's a reason why weather forecasters say that you shouldn't confuse models with forecasts and why any computer-generated scenario ten or more days in advance should be taken with a grain of salt.  That said, I am not very comfortable about this.  As long as the chance of a direct hit exists, Matthew is going to keep me up at night as it progresses until we know where it's going.  And then, if it is expected to target the Northeast, I'll really be insomnia-prone, given the number of electrical blackouts we've had since November 2009!

Given the October 2012 appearance of Sandy and the various October storms we've had in my neck of the woods since then, I am convinced that the tenth month of the year has become something to dread for reasons other than ghouls, goblins, and just-add-water protests against Columbus Day - guys, if you don't want a holiday for Columbus, or if you want to call it a federal bank holiday so at least bank tellers, law clerks, and mail carriers still get the second Monday in October off, just do something about it!  October, thanks no doubt to climate change and longer peak periods during hurricane season, is becoming stormier than March.  And to those who think Mathew is all hype - oh, ye of too much faith.

Oh yeah, the last tine I talked about electrical blackouts, I said we'd had 34 of them since November 2009.  Turns out I undercounted - it's 36, not 34! :-O