Quo Vadis, Martin?

I watched the election returns come in this past Tuesday night looking for clues as to whether former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley, who backed numerous state and local candidates all across the country through his Win Back Your State PAC, would run for President in 2020.  With the knowledge that Win Back Your State was as much about building up O'Malley nationwide as it was about building up the Democratic base, my metric was simple; if the Democrats did well, he would run, and if they didn't, he would choose not to run.

The result on Tuesday night was mixed.

While the Democrats did gain 32 seats in the House and are likely to gain more as votes are counted and certified, and while they flipped seven governorships, they were less successful with state legislatures, Win Back Your State's main focus.  They gained about three hundred seats, but Republicans still control about three-fifths of the state legislative chambers.  The bright side?  The Democrats go into 2019 controlling the governorship and both legislative houses in fourteen states, a net gain of six.  But that's still far short of what the Democrats need to produce meaningful change at the state level.  O'Malley didn't concentrate his efforts on the U.S. Senate as much as he concentrated on the state legislatures, the governorships, or U.S. House seats, and with good reason; the Senate map favored Republicans from the start, and the GOP may end up adding at least two additional seats.  And Democratic hopes of retaking the Senate may be a long shot for years to come, given the growing Republican power in the smaller states, as Dylan Matthews of Vox.com explains.

And then there's O'Malley's home state of Maryland.  Democrats retained control of the legislature, called the General Assembly, but Republican governor Larry Hogan won re-election and gets another four years to undo O'Malley's legacy.  O'Malley spent practically zero time in his home state, but then the Democrats didn't need his help to maintain control of both houses of the General Assembly.  But former NAACP president Ben Jealous, Hogan's Democratic opponent, sure could have used his help.  O'Malley's decision to keep his distance from Jealous, whom he did not back for the Maryland Democratic gubernatorial nomination, reflects badly on the former governor.  While I suspect that O'Malley did not back Jealous because he believed he was going to lose, some wags have opined that the real reason O'Malley kept his distance from Maryland is because he's still deeply unpopular as an ex-governor, and that his support for Jealous or other Democrats would have hurt rather than helped them.  And truth be told, O'Malley's failure to secure then-Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown's election as his successor in 2014 despite Brown's consistent lead over Hogan in the polls was likely the first blow against his 2016 presidential hopes.  Democratic leaders looking for an alternative to Hillary only had to see the 2014 election results in Maryland - and O'Malley's plummeting approval rating - to shake their heads and look elsewhere.

O'Malley helped Democrats make great strides in state elections, to be sure, but so did other political action committees. Win Back Your State deserves credit for its efforts at building up the party, but other groups will also take credit, diluting O'Malley's stature. 

Also, there are the unknown variables involving O'Malley's competition. All eyes are on Beto O'Rourke possibly running for President in 2020 after his loss in the U.S. Senate race in Texas to Ted Cruz.  There are several other possible candidates, many of whom have been getting the sort of repeated media exposure that O'Malley can only envy.  Of course, Beto may not run, and some high-profile Democrats considering at presidential run, such as Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand, have embarrassed themselves in the public eye - Harris and Booker with their grandstanding during the Brett Kavanaugh hearings that ended up helping the Supreme Court nominee win confirmation, Gillibrand for her naked power play against Al Franken - while other prospects such as Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are seen as past their prime.

What O'Malley may have going for him this time is something I alluded to in my earlier comments about the 2018 elections.  I noted that progressives who were nominated for office, including Jealous, lost decisively and that the Democrats have been warned not to nominate a progressive presidential candidate.  Except that earlier Democratic efforts at moving to the center - in presidential and down-ballot elections alike - have also fallen short.  O'Malley represents a third alternative, a platform with progressive policies - infrastructure, opposition to the death penalty, expanded homosexual rights, a tough line on guns - with an approach to building consensus and getting things done that centrists can admire.  That third way didn't get any attention when he ran against progressive Bernie Sanders and the centrist Hillary Clinton, but maybe after four years of Donald J. Trump, O'Malley's political philosophy may get another look from rank-and-file Democrats.

In short, O'Malley's chances of running for President in 2020 are, well, 50-50.  My take is that he can still run and he can still win - but it won't be easy. 

So, Governor, are you in, or are you out?  Where are you going? 

I await the answer.

The Decline of the Democratic National Committee Explained

If the Democrats manage to win back the House of Representatives and take over eight governorships next week, it will be no thanks to the Democratic National Committee (DNC).

Let me explain how the DNC declined and fell like the Roman Colosseum.

Under DWS, when the political careers of many Democrats went RIP,  the DNC went DOA.

In 2016, when the DNC got in trouble for tipping the scales for Hillary Clinton's presidential nomination, and DWS was Xed out, the party had to turn it up a couple of DBs.

 And once America got the DTs . . .

. . . the Democrats TP'ed themselves in response.

And so many rank-and-file Democrats are disillusioned, they want to go running to Mom.

Maybe they should consider running to M'OM.

Because, through his Win Back Your State PAC (don't you hate those silly initials?), Martin O'Malley has learned what voters want and what voters are concerned about.  Unlike the Democratic National Committee.  If the Democrats do well in this election, thank Martin O'Malley, and pay attention to what he says if and when he runs for President again.  

Listen to your M'OM.

Win Back Your State.  Because the DNC won't.  

Still Marching

I've been keeping up with Martin O'Malley as the 2018 midterm elections approach, following his efforts at helping Democrats win control of more state legislative seats and a few gubernatorial and congressional seats as well, as he marches on from one state to the next and contemplates another presidential run in 2020.

To be honest, there hasn't been much about O'Malley lately, apart from a few articles here and there, and there haven't been all that many interviews with him either.  Maybe that's to be expected - but likely not for reasons you might think.  No, he isn't getting any attention from the media as they drool over Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Joe Biden and other potential 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.  But that's probably because he doesn't have time for interviews with the press.  While other Democratic presidential candidates bloviate on TV news shows or preen in congressional hearings, O'Malley is out in the middle of the country, campaigning for local Democrats and building the alliances and connections he'll need for a 2020 presidential campaign.  Laying the groundwork for another bid for the White House at the grass-roots level is so much more important than strutting like a peacock on cable TV.

To get an idea of just what O'Malley is up to with his Win Back Your State PAC, I urge you to read this excellent aticle from Mileah Kromer of the Baltimore Sun.  In the meantime, whether news about O'Malley is frequent or scant, I plan to keep talking about him.  Somebody has to.        

Barack Obama? Is That You?

Have you ever wondered what happened to Barack Obama? Well, the forty-fourth President of the United States is back.

The former President, who turned 57 this past Saturday, announced that he and his wife Michelle are endorsing 81 Democratic candidates for congressional, gubernatorial and state legislative elections, with more endorsements to come.  It's part of Obama's efforts to help the Democrats regain power nationwide.  Two of those candidates are in my home state of New Jersey - Andy Kim (no, not that guy who sang "Rock Me Gently" in the seventies) for the state's Third U.S. House District and Tom Malinowski for its Seventh U.S. House District.  No endorsement for Mikie Sherrill in my district, the Eleventh, just yet.

So why is Obama doing all this?  Because he says that, in the past decade, the Democrats lost far too many elective offices, including governorships and control of federal and state legislatures, to the Republicans, and they have to start winning these offices back if they have any chance of surviving going forward.

Hmm . . . it's too bad Obama was never in a position to do anything about this before!

And what Obama has said sounds suspiciously like what another Democrat who had hoped to succeed him as President has been saying for about nine months now. This other Democrat has been doing something about it for those nine months and counting  - and he's already done more than what Obama did for his party in eight years!

And here he is!            

Martin O'Malley has been toiling in obscurity - obscurity created by a media establishment that doesn't give a twit about him - helping Democrats win state and local elections (mostly special elections) through his Win Back Your State PAC.  The fanfare he has failed to get will likely be compensated by the numerous endorsements from the state and local Democratic officials he helps get elected this year and next should he run for President in 2020.  Obama isn't doing anything now that O'Malley hasn't already done.

O'Malley was always charitable toward President Obama (who apparently wants former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick to run for President in 2020) during Obama's two terms, saying that he couldn't solve every problem in America because he was merely the President, not a magician.  But Obama was a magician - he made the Democratic Party disappear!  And party chairs Tim Kaine and Debbie Wasserman Schultz were his apprentices.   

I'm glad Obama is helping people like O'Malley rebuild the Democratic Party.  But with Donald Trump having reversed every policy initiative Obama instigated, the sad truth is that Obama's legacy is a smaller Democratic Party with a thousand fewer elective offices - death by a thousand cuts.  Before 2017, no President had left office with his party in such a sorry state since Millard Fillmore left office in 1853.

Millard Fillmore, of course, was the last Whig President.     

All Politics Is Local

In case establishment Democrats didn't get the message that their time is up, take a look at what happened in the June 26 primary election in New York's Fourteenth U.S. House District, which encompasses northwestern Queens and the southeastern Bronx (the Whitestone Bridge is the connection between the two parts).  Joseph Crowley, the district's current representative and an Irish urban pol in the old-school tradition of Richard Daley, Tom Pendergast, and the Bronx's own James Farley, just got his Irish butt handed to him in the primary by a political newcomer and self-described democratic socialist named Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

She's a supporter of Bernie Sanders who advocates Medicare for all, guaranteed employment, and tuition-free public education. And while not every Democrat will get on board with her agenda, that's not important.  What's important is that voters in her district are on board with Ocasio-Cortez's positions more than they were with those of Crowley, who as Queens County Democratic Committee chairman and as a white guy was a mainstream liberal in a district that is half Hispanic and less than one-fifth non-Hispanic white.  Crowley is someone who has always been accountable the needs of his district, but his constituents (or at least those who voted in the primary) decided that the old way wasn't just working for them anymore.

Although this is already a Democratic district, Ocasio-Cortez's victory in the primary should send a message to Democrats vying to flip Republican House seats in other districts - that is, you have to be able to respond to the concerns of the voters and be more in tune with local issues than with the national party's agenda.  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is right for her district.  In New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill, running to be the first Democrat to be elected to represent my U.S. House district since 1982, is right for my district, even though she's not nearly as liberal as Ocasio-Cortez.  Both women realize that the key to helping their party regain the House is to listen to the voters and focus on what you're for rather than just being against Trump.

In other words, what Martin O'Malley has been saying for months.

O'Malley was pleased with Ocasio-Cortez's June 26 win for all the reasons stated above, even though he had nothing to do with it. Ironically, he came up on the losing end in his home state of Maryland that same day. O'Malley got behind Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker's bid for governor of Maryland but saw former NAACP President Ben Jealous, who's closer to Sanders than O'Malley politically, win the June 26 primary instead.  O'Malley, who's not really part of the establishment but is viewed with suspicion by many progressives for having once been part of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, didn't do himself any favors by supporting a candidate with establishment backing.  Good grief, Baker was backed by Steny Hoyer, the Maryland congressman who is establishment right down to his toenails. 

Quite frankly, I don't know why O'Malley involves himself in primaries when his focus should be on the general elections.  Perhaps he supported Baker because he had the best chance of defeating incumbent Republican Governor Larry Hogan (who's favored to win re-election and would likely win a second term even if the Democratic nominee were Saint Francis of Assisi) in the fall.  Even more perplexing is why O'Malley should involve himself in the politics of his own state.  O'Malley's reputation at home has suffered since he left the governor's office in 2015; Hogan's popularity is partly based on rolling back some of O'Malley's policies.  O'Malley isn't unpopular with everyone in Maryland, but enough Maryland voters hold him in such low regard that the best thing for his political future is to continue his efforts for the Democrats elsewhere.  Conclusion: Martin O'Malley has done a good job with his Win Back Your State PAC so far, but the last state he should help Democrats win back is his own.

And if Ben Jealous is whom Maryland Democrats want, then he's the best candidate for them.   

Win Back Your State - Game Time

Martin O'Malley is serious - dead serious - about helping the Democrats win back power in the midterm elections six months from today, even though the Democratic Party establishment considers him politically dead.  At this point, the national party doesn't have a message, doesn't have a strategy, and doesn't have a clue.  But state and local parties and candidates have all of that, and Martin O'Malley is hell-bent on toughening up for the November elections to come. This is how he explains it in his fundraising e-mail for his political action committee, or PAC:

*

Something really new is happening for the Democratic Party.

From Ohio, to Florida, from New Hampshire to Iowa  -  and beyond -  State Democratic Party Chairs all tell me the same thing. "This year, we have more qualified candidates, Martin, than we have qualified campaign staff."

Say what you will about Donald Trump, he has been the greatest recruitment tool our Party has had in a long time. (Yes, I called him a “tool.”) He has also been a huge help — “HUGE HELP” — when it comes to building crowds for marches and protests. But, good candidates and big demonstrations aren’t enough to win back our states. We need to run campaigns that win elections. So, let’s fill the space between this new grassroots energy and the ability to run winning elections all across our country.

Last weekend in College Park, Maryland, our new Leadership PAC  -  Win Back Your State  - held our first "training camp" for new campaign staff. Many of those who signed up for a full day of training were totally new to electoral politics. Some were recently retired and wanted to make a difference this year when our country needs us most. Kathleen, new to campaigns at the age of fifty, had driven down from Philadelphia. Ian, a college student at George Washington, already had some prior campaign experience in South Africa of all places. We even had a father-daughter team  -  Wesley and Karen from Howard County, Maryland  -  who joined in a full day of lectures, trainings, and simulations on everything from running an effective door-to-door operation to designing effective messages for social media.

This was our first Win Back Your State Training Camp, but with your help, it won’t be our last. Every state matters and every state needs good people who can actually run campaigns. So, please join me in bringing forward a new generation of campaign leadership from the grassroots up.

There is goodness within our country. It’s just waiting to be called forward.

Great nations sometimes make bad mistakes; good nations correct them quickly.

- Martin O'Malley 

*

It's great to see someone take charge like this.  Maybe it will inspire Tom Perez to do something constructive.  If he needs the training, I'm sure I can find a bicycle with two extra wheels to help him get started. :-p

O'Malley knows what the stakes are.  If the Democrats don't win back power at the state or federal level, they'll be crippled even more going into 2019 as Republicans seek to consolidate their power to suppress the vote and prepare to take control of redistricting in advance of the 2020 census.  And it's a pretty safe bet that if the Democrats go down in 2018, they will most likely not only lose the congressional elections in 2020 but the Presidency as well.  And if they lose in 2020, the party is doomed.  That will really be it.

Click here to donate to Win Back Your State.

RFK or FKR?

I belong to three Martin O'Malley Facebook groups, two of which I've become the de facto administrator of in the dormant period before potential Democratic presidential candidates for 2020 start declaring their intentions.  One of these Facebook groups is called "MARTIN O'MALLEY 2020: HES PRETTY MUCH JFK WITH DANK BICEPS AND PLAYS GUITAR."

Awkward, but it gets the point across.

When O'Malley was first talked about as a possible Democratic presidential candidate this time four years ago, pundits were comparing him to John F. Kennedy because of his Irish Catholic background and his devotion to public service.  Sometimes, though, I think the Facebook group I belong to should be called "MARTIN O'MALLEY 2020: HES PRETTY MUCH RFK WITH DANK BICEPS AND PLAYS GUITAR," because I think he aspires to be more like Robert Kennedy than President Kennedy - someone who can cut across racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic barriers and build bridges, someone who can get Americans behind a common cause for a better tomorrow.

The problem is that, for now, anyway, O'Malley aspires to be like Robert Kennedy but hasn't been successful at emulating him.  Not only has had trouble bringing everyone together, he hasn't had any luck bringing anyone together - not beyond his core supporters, anyway.  Marylanders consistently go on his own Facebook page and excoriate him for his record as governor of Maryland, blaming him for the state's persistent troubles and mocking his Win Back Your State PAC by saying that Marylanders already won back their state when they elected Republican Larry Hogan (whose re-election this year is all but inevitable) to undo O'Malley's agenda.  And despite campaigning for Hillary Clinton with Jesse Jackson, despite his solidarity with John Lewis against Trump, despite his tribute to Muhammad Ali on Twitter, black people have long since decided that O'Malley is not and never was for them, taking dead aim at his record as mayor of Baltimore and continuing to blame him for Freddie Gray's death. Marylanders who don't even live in Baltimore still go after O'Malley on his Facebook page for even that, blaming him for the troubles of a city that's been on life support for the past fifty years.

Robert Kennedy got his own share of hatred from his opponents - a National Review cover depicting him as a viper was ready to run but was pulled as a result of RFK's assassination - but despite his own efforts at bringing people together in sixteen years of elective executive office, O'Malley is building bridges that no one wants to cross.  People on either side of a bridge O'Malley built would sooner burn it.  The bright side? Robert Kennedy, a complex figure like O'Malley, turned people off with own aggressive criminal-justice stance and equivocated on running for President in 1968 before throwing his hat in the ring late, disappointing numerous people who stayed with 1968 presidential candidate Eugene McCarthy.  However, RFK ultimately found his voice as a leader.  Martin O'Malley is still in the process of cultivating his own voice.  He can't be counted out yet.  But for now, a lot of people, particularly in Maryland, are calling him expletives, like "motherf**ker."  While Hillary Clinton gets applauded for just showing up somewhere and while Bernie Sanders is cheered on for his "revolution," Martin O'Malley, who could be either another RFK or another JFK, is currently getting FKUs.

But then, O'Malley has a disadvantage Bobby Kennedy never had - a record in elective executive office.  Running a city or a state is a great way to make yourself enemies who tell you what to do with yourself.

The Kennedy comparisons to O'Malley from 2014 and 2015 faded when it became apparent that  Democrats - including his own senator and his mother's employer, Barbara Mikluski (O'Malley's mother, also named Barbara, worked for Senator Mikulski as a secretary) - wanted nothing to do with O'Malley in 2016.  He then began drawing comparisons to Democratic also-rans past, the inference being that he was just the latest in series of useless lightweights.  (Then-Senator Mikulski said in 2015, that she wished O'Malley well, but that she was for Hillary, subliminally diminishing him in anger for having the gall to run for President in Hillary's year.)  Right now O'Malley is trying to help a party that refuses to acknowledge or appreciate him and lacks credible alternatives to an O'Malley presidential candidacy in 2020 win back power in 2018 with his PAC.  If Democrats score big this November, O'Malley, who's beginning to win friends and influence people through Win Back Your State, will go from an FKR to an RFK (or a JFK) pretty fast.