Viva Las Vegas?

Well - that was a shock!

Bernie Sanders won nearly half of the vote in the Nevada caucuses.  The good news for Joe Biden was that he came in second.  The bad news is that he came in a very distant second.  It was like when an American yacht won what became the America's Cup for the first time in 1851, and Queen Victoria, watching at the finish line, asked who was second, with someone telling her, "Ah, Your Majesty, there is no second."

Sanders won fair and square, forging a multi-racial and multi-generational coalition that showed greater strength than pundits previously realized.  He has proven that, despite his controversial policy proposals, he is more than willing and able to take on Donald Trump in November.  Maybe.

It's not over yet.  Michael Bloomberg may have stumbled badly in his first debate, but he has another chance tomorrow in the CBS debate ahead of the South Carolina primary on February 29, and he isn't even on the ballot until Super Tuesday on March 3.  Also, Biden could jump-start his faltering campaign with a decisive win in South Carolina, which is still possible.

(One thing that is not possible: Elizabeth Warren regaining her favorite-aunt image.  I noted that in the debate last week, she came across as the nasty aunt who says your model train set is a piece of junk and then says she's kidding - a real-life moment of mine by the way - but since she started making fun of Bloomberg's height, she comes across as something worse than a nasty aunt.  She's now like a mother-in-law.)   

One caveat to those who want to stop Sanders; the opera may not be over, but the fat lady is warming up.  I still have my doubts about Sanders as the Democratic nominee, but I have a lot of friends who think he can win.  At this point, I have only one thing to say in response to that and I'll say it again and again and again until November if Sanders wins the Democratic presidential nomination:

You'd better be right about this! 

Gambling On Nevada

Joe Biden is gambling on Nevada to turn around his struggling presidential campaign.  Bernie Sanders is gambling on Nevada to propel him to true front-runner status.  And the Democratic National Committee is still gambling on Nevada to, unlike Iowa, get its caucuses right.

Yeah, about that . . .

Nevada has been having early voting in its caucuses, which is sort of contradictory to how a caucus system works - you have to go to a meeting and stick around for a few hours, with, I assume, refreshments provided.  There's been a lot of enthusiasm in the early voting, but it's led to a problem with how the votes are going to be tabulated district by district when the actual caucus meetings are held this coming Saturday.  The system that caucus organizers have to sort everything out may need some sorting out itself, and the process, while different from Iowa's, could be just as messy if not worse.  We might not know who comes in second in Nevada - because we all know Sanders is going to win, right? -  until the South Carolina primary is held a week later.    

After all of the crass mistakes the Democratic National Committee made in 2016, the folks at the DNC have vowed not to make the same old mistakes.  Now it appears they're making new ones,

Oh yeah, Mike Bloomberg qualifies for this evening's Democratic debate in the first multiracial state to hold a primary or a caucus this year.  And he will be on that debate stage.  Must-see TV!

Joe Biden's Last Hope

Imagine the headlines in the Sunday papers the day after the South Carolina primary on February 29:

BIDEN LEAPS BACK TO FRONT RUNNER STATUS  

LEAP DAY WIN HELPS BIDEN LIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY 

AFTER 2/29 WIN IN SC, BIDEN LEAPS INTO MARCH LIKE A LION

Well, I'm sure that's what Biden would like to see.  And the former Vice President can still pull it off.  He still has the lead in the polls, and he's fighting like hell in South Carolina.  But even with that, it may not be enough.  Not only is Tom Steyer - who undistinguished himself in Iowa by winning a mere 0.3 percent, half of what Martin O'Malley got in 2016 - gaining in the South Carolina polls, so is Bernie Sanders.  One projection even has Sanders winning.

A solid performance in the Nevada caucuses on February 22 might help Biden gain traction in time for the South Carolina primary, but he faces two obstacles.  One is that Sanders is much better organized there despite opposition to his single-payer health care proposal due to the generous health benefits offered by the culinary worker's union, a big force in Nevada politics thanks to the hospitality business in Las Vegas and Reno.  Another is that the culinary union, whose support Biden was counting on to give him a boost in the Silver State, has decided not to endorse anyone.  Sort of reminds me of the "Muppet Show" episode parodying awards shows in which Miss Piggy is in both sketches up for Best Muppet Sketch and knows she can't lose . . . until the judges decide not to give out the award.  Biden must be fuming in private about losing his chance to grab a major endorsement and get some desperately needed positive media attention.

Biden doesn't seem to be doing enough to shore up his support in South Carolina, especially among black voters, and his palmetto firewall is showing cracks and splits.  He still has a chance to turn things around, but the feeble, lackadaisical nature of his campaign in recent weeks suggest that he's not up to the task.  He might have to withdraw as a candidate on March 1 . . . and the Democrats could leap into chaos in time for Super Tuesday.